Once a stronghold for the National Party, Tamworth is witnessing a shift in political allegiance as Barnaby Joyce's recent support for One Nation gains traction among local voters.
As you stroll down Peel Street in Tamworth, it feels like a microcosm of Australia itself. In just a short walk, you might encounter a farmer from central Victoria, a resident of Melbourne from a safe Labor seat, and a woman skilled in explosives for the coal industry—all converging in this vibrant town.
What ties these individuals together? They are all contemplating casting their votes for One Nation.
Steve Brown, who traveled from Bridgewater, Victoria, to see his son Tom perform, expresses his openness to the idea. "I would definitely consider it, yes," he states, reflecting on his previous support for the Coalition. "There’s still a huge voter base in rural areas, and I feel that the Liberal Party has shifted away from its traditional center. One Nation appears to be stepping in to fill that gap," Mr. Brown explains.
Kris, a Melburnian, shares her thoughts about potentially changing her vote from the Liberal Party. "I’m giving it serious consideration. The current division within the Liberal Party is concerning," she admits.
Eighteen-year-old McKenzie, who is preparing for a career in the coal sector, reveals that her first-time vote will go to One Nation. "I believe the current government is not acting in the best interests of our country," she tells 7.30. "Immigration is a significant issue, and with our abundant resources like coal, oil, and gas, they seem to prioritize other matters instead."
Gary Crimmin, donned in a broad-brimmed hat and a hunting-themed shirt, voices his discontent with the National Party for not adequately representing the interests of shooters. "They haven't backed our gun laws or hate speech legislation. They've stripped us of our freedoms and rights," he asserts.
Hanson's message is clearly starting to resonate with a wider audience. Recent polling indicates that One Nation's support now ranges between 18 to 22 percent, a significant increase from the mere 6.4 percent of first-place votes the party received in the last federal election.
This surge in support can be traced back to various factors. According to Jim Reed from polling firm Resolve, "In the early phase, they mainly drew votes from the Coalition and its older demographic. Recently, however, they have begun attracting votes from the Labor side as well, effectively capturing support from both major parties."
The trend is particularly pronounced in Tamworth, especially after the National Party branch made a collective shift to One Nation in October, just before local MP Barnaby Joyce switched allegiances in December.
Joyce notes that numerous factors contribute to this movement towards One Nation.
"Issues such as the rising cost of living, inconsistent power supply, the encroachment of environmental laws into daily life, and overall over-regulation play a role. Many people feel embarrassed when their card gets declined at the grocery store, and dissatisfaction with Mr. Albanese also contributes to the mix. The Coalition has essentially self-destructed, and this is merely the beginning!" he told 7.30.
Until the recent political shift, Steve Coxhead served as the chairman of the National Party in Tamworth. He reflects on his departure by saying, "I didn’t leave the Nationals; the Nationals left me." He argues that while the National Party’s stance on critical issues like net zero targets and hate speech laws seems to be ever-changing, Pauline Hanson’s consistent messaging over the past 20 to 30 years is appealing to many. "Ms. Hanson has maintained her core message, which is starting to resonate with people, particularly as the Liberals align more closely with Labor, pushing the Nationals further left, whether intentionally or not," he adds.
Interestingly, not every potential One Nation supporter in Tamworth holds anti-immigration views. "I’m not against immigration at all," Mr. Brown clarifies. "While I recognize that One Nation has an anti-immigration stance, it does give me pause when considering my vote. We need immigration to bolster our economy and maintain our standard of living. However, the current net zero policy is hindering our manufacturing sector and negatively impacting our GDP."
What does a potential coalition with One Nation look like? Jim Reed from Resolve suggests that while One Nation is poised to gain additional Senate seats, this upward trend in polls may not necessarily translate into House of Representatives seats. "Even if One Nation garners a 30 or 40 percent primary vote in a given electorate, they still require the preference votes from another party to secure more than 50 percent. As it stands, there’s no indication that major parties will preferentially support them to help them achieve this," he explains. "Consequently, it’s challenging to foresee One Nation winning more than just a handful of seats."
Reed also points out that Hanson may not hold the same level of importance to the party as she once did. "Our polling shows that while long-time supporters still reference her, many of the newer voters don’t mention her at all. They seem to be supporting One Nation not because of Pauline Hanson, but rather despite her and her more provocative tactics."
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