Imagine living near a volcano thought to be long dormant, only to discover it's stirring after 700,000 years of silence! That's the reality unfolding in southeastern Iran, and it's a wake-up call that demands our attention.
A volcano named Taftan, previously considered inactive, has shown signs of waking up. New research, using advanced satellite technology, reveals that the ground around the volcano has risen by about 3.5 inches (9 centimeters) in just 10 months. While this might seem like a minor change, it signifies a potentially significant shift in the volcano's internal activity. This subtle uplift suggests that pressure is building beneath the surface, near the summit.
Scientists are keeping a close watch on Taftan, especially because there's no record of it erupting within human history. You might think that means it's safe, but that's precisely the kind of thinking that can lead to disaster. This 'fresh signal,' as researchers call it, indicates that the volcano's system is stirring.
But here's where it gets controversial... Just because a volcano hasn't erupted in recorded history doesn't automatically mean it's extinct! Volcanoes can remain dormant for incredibly long periods, only to suddenly become active again. The key is continuous monitoring, not just relying on historical data.
To study Taftan, scientists are using a sophisticated technique called InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar). This method uses radar signals from space to measure ground deformation with incredible precision. Think of it like using a super-sensitive ruler that can detect even the slightest changes in the Earth's surface from hundreds of miles away! The Sentinel-1 satellites, which operate day and night and can see through clouds, provide the data for this analysis. This is crucial because Taftan is in a remote location where traditional ground-based monitoring is limited.
The uplift, which occurred between July 2023 and May 2024, is centered near the volcano's summit. The fact that the rise hasn't subsided suggests that the pressure hasn't yet been released. Pablo J. González, a senior researcher at the Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology’s Spanish National Research Council (IPNA), is leading the study. His expertise is crucial in interpreting the complex data and understanding the volcano's behavior.
And this is the part most people miss... Because Taftan is so remote and lacks on-the-ground instruments like continuous GPS receivers, space-based radar is really the best (and sometimes only) way to monitor it effectively. It allows scientists to keep tabs on a mountain that few people visit, but which is located near several towns.
The team created a model that points to the source of the pressure being relatively shallow, only about 1,600 to 2,070 feet (490 to 630 meters) below the surface. This depth suggests that the pressure buildup is likely due to gases accumulating within a hydrothermal system – a zone where hot water and gas circulate beneath the volcano.
Researchers considered other potential causes, such as heavy rainfall or nearby earthquakes, but ruled them out. The signal's consistent rise and gradual slowing, without any external triggers, strongly suggests internal processes are at play within the volcano itself.
Deeper down, more than 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) below the surface, lies the magma reservoir, a large body of molten rock. However, the current uplift is likely caused by gases above the magma reservoir, rather than fresh magma rising to the surface. The process appears to be a slow pressurization. Initially, the ground rose, but then stabilized as new cracks formed, allowing some gas to escape.
The researchers emphasize that labeling a volcano as "extinct" can be misleading. Taftan is a stratovolcano, a steep-sided volcano built from layers of lava and ash, reaching a height of 12,927 feet (3,940 meters). It still vents gases through fumaroles (volcanic vents), indicating that the system is active. The lack of eruption records for the past 10,000 years doesn't necessarily mean the volcano is dead, just that it's been quiet. Volcanoes can remain dormant for extended periods and then change dramatically in a matter of months. That's why scientists look at more than just ash plumes as early warning signs; they also monitor gas emissions, heat flow, and ground deformation. Measurements are more important than labels.
One possible explanation for the uplift is that gas is accumulating in tight rocks and fractures. As the gas pressure increases, the rock expands slightly, causing the summit area to rise. Another possibility is that a small pulse of molten rock released volatile gases into the shallower plumbing system. These gases then percolated upward, increasing pressure in the pores. Both scenarios align with the shallow source and the timing of the uplift. The data also indicate that the rate of uplift slowed as the gas found pathways to escape.
None of this necessarily means an eruption is imminent. However, it does require careful monitoring because the pressure needs to be released somehow. The way in which this pressure is released will have very different consequences.
The most likely near-term hazards are not lava flows, but phreatic blasts – steam-driven explosions that occur when hot fluids rapidly turn into vapor near the surface. These explosions can be powerful and dangerous. Gas bursts can also irritate the eyes and lungs and damage crops downwind. The city of Khash is located approximately 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the volcano, close enough to smell sulfur when the wind is blowing in the right direction.
“It has to release somehow in the future, either violently or more quietly,
